The whole disclosure system assumes the person moving markets is a fund or a broker. It literally doesn't have a box for "guy with a Substack and a Delaware corp." Looking forward to part 2!
Watching the internet collectively lose its mind over a piece of Substack "speculative fiction" supposedly wiping out billions in market cap is honestly hilarious from both a statistical and trading perspective.
First, the epidemiology 101 lesson: correlation is not causation. We have a viral post on Sunday and a selloff on Monday, and the media lazily draws a straight line between them. Second, as anyone who has actually traded size all too painfully knows, markets do not drop 800 points because a guy with 100k Twitter followers wrote a sci-fi memo. Markets move based on liquidity, macro, and micro structure. They drop when they are brittle and ready to correct, and sell side volumes overconnect with a brittle and exhausted bid side. The narrative is just post-game rationalization because "algorithmic rebalancing in a low-liquidity environment" doesn't generate clicks.
But what genuinely amazes me as an old market pro is the real grift hiding in plain sight. People are writing massive exposés on "vibe laundering," completely missing the massive incentive gap that retail subscribers are actively funding. You have creators selling "alpha" behind paywalls, and subscribers are literally paying hundreds of dollars a year for the privilege of being front-run or serving as exit liquidity.
This is exactly what I meant in my last post titled ”Can Someone Please Build This”: we desperately need an Alpha Tracker for the creator economy. We need platform-agnostic, API-verified track records (Net Performance, Sharpe, Drawdowns) using a 90-day lag or Zero-Knowledge Proofs to protect the creator's IP. No spreadsheets. No hiding the losers.
If you have real alpha, a verified badge is the best marketing tool on earth. If you don't, your refusal to verify should be a massive red flag. Until someone builds this infrastructure, people will keep paying top dollar to read sci-fi, mistaking it for market mechanics. Until then, caveat emptor.
I appreciate the epidemiology mention however I literally cited the EDGAR filings, the Form D, and the SAFE structure, so the incentive gap you're saying I missed is sections I through III. Nonetheless, I do appreciate your time and I love that you used my comment section to pitch your own product. Very on-theme for vibe laundering and I can respect a hustle. Godspeed!
Great writing on this!
Thank you Mauro, appreciate it!
The whole disclosure system assumes the person moving markets is a fund or a broker. It literally doesn't have a box for "guy with a Substack and a Delaware corp." Looking forward to part 2!
Hell yeah, part 2 is up here now, check it out! https://www.notyourtypicalfinancebro.com/p/vibe-laundering-pt-2-citrini-the
Watching the internet collectively lose its mind over a piece of Substack "speculative fiction" supposedly wiping out billions in market cap is honestly hilarious from both a statistical and trading perspective.
First, the epidemiology 101 lesson: correlation is not causation. We have a viral post on Sunday and a selloff on Monday, and the media lazily draws a straight line between them. Second, as anyone who has actually traded size all too painfully knows, markets do not drop 800 points because a guy with 100k Twitter followers wrote a sci-fi memo. Markets move based on liquidity, macro, and micro structure. They drop when they are brittle and ready to correct, and sell side volumes overconnect with a brittle and exhausted bid side. The narrative is just post-game rationalization because "algorithmic rebalancing in a low-liquidity environment" doesn't generate clicks.
But what genuinely amazes me as an old market pro is the real grift hiding in plain sight. People are writing massive exposés on "vibe laundering," completely missing the massive incentive gap that retail subscribers are actively funding. You have creators selling "alpha" behind paywalls, and subscribers are literally paying hundreds of dollars a year for the privilege of being front-run or serving as exit liquidity.
This is exactly what I meant in my last post titled ”Can Someone Please Build This”: we desperately need an Alpha Tracker for the creator economy. We need platform-agnostic, API-verified track records (Net Performance, Sharpe, Drawdowns) using a 90-day lag or Zero-Knowledge Proofs to protect the creator's IP. No spreadsheets. No hiding the losers.
If you have real alpha, a verified badge is the best marketing tool on earth. If you don't, your refusal to verify should be a massive red flag. Until someone builds this infrastructure, people will keep paying top dollar to read sci-fi, mistaking it for market mechanics. Until then, caveat emptor.
I appreciate the epidemiology mention however I literally cited the EDGAR filings, the Form D, and the SAFE structure, so the incentive gap you're saying I missed is sections I through III. Nonetheless, I do appreciate your time and I love that you used my comment section to pitch your own product. Very on-theme for vibe laundering and I can respect a hustle. Godspeed!